Pillar · the second trigger
The 30-day forward look
Policy state · verified
Forward-look 30-day test: £90,000
VAT Notice 700/1 (who should register) · Last verified 13 Jun 2026
gov.uk/guidance/who-should-register-for-vat-notice-7001What the forward look is
At any time, if you have reasonable grounds to expect that your taxable turnover in the next 30 days alone will exceed £90,000, you must register for VAT immediately. This is entirely separate from the rolling 12-month backward-look test. VAT Notice 700/1
How it differs from the rolling test
- Timing. The backward look is checked at each month-end. The forward look fires the moment your expectation forms.
- Effective date. Under the forward look, registration takes effect from the date you realised — not the end of the 30 days, and not the start of a later month.
- Trigger. A single large confirmed contract can meet the forward-look test on its own, even if your rolling 12-month total is nowhere near the threshold.
A worked example
Suppose your rolling 12-month turnover is a steady £40,000. In June you sign a one-off contract worth £95,000 to be delivered within 30 days. The forward-look test is met on the day you sign — you must register from that date, even though your backward-look total is well under £90,000.
You can model this in the tracker: switch on the forward-look test and enter your expected next-30-days figure.
Rolling 12-month tracker · backward look
Where you stand against the £90,000 threshold
Enter your net taxable turnover, month by month. We sum the trailing 12 months at each month-end — that is the test HMRC actually applies.
Rolling 12-month sum
£88,600
Threshold £90,000
% of threshold
98.4%
Near thresholdHeadroom to threshold
£1,400
Remaining before you must register
| Month | Net taxable turnover (£) | Rolling 12-mo | % of threshold | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | £ | £6,200 | 6.9% | — |
| Jul 25 | £ | £12,700 | 14.1% | — |
| Aug 25 | £ | £19,000 | 21.1% | — |
| Sep 25 | £ | £25,800 | 28.7% | — |
| Oct 25 | £ | £32,900 | 36.6% | — |
| Nov 25 | £ | £39,800 | 44.2% | — |
| Dec 25 | £ | £47,000 | 52.2% | — |
| Jan 26 | £ | £54,500 | 60.6% | — |
| Feb 26 | £ | £61,900 | 68.8% | — |
| Mar 26 | £ | £69,700 | 77.4% | — |
| Apr 26 | £ | £77,800 | 86.4% | 80%+ |
| May 26 | £ | £86,200 | 95.8% | 90%+ |
| Jun 26 | £ | £88,600 | 98.4% | 90%+ |
Across this window your rolling 12-month total stays below £90,000. You are not required to register on the backward-look test — but keep checking each month-end, and watch the forward-look 30-day test if you expect a large one-off.
Worked examples (illustrative)
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Independent ICAEW/ACCA review pending · Formula v1.0 · How we research
Once registered either way, your next steps are Making Tax Digital and choosing whether the Flat Rate Scheme suits your trade.